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Rilski Sportist vs Levski Rakovski — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
2 – 1
Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
3/25/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 2Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rilski Sportist60%
×Draw22%
Levski Rakovski19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
1.96
Levski Rakovski
0.99

Rilski Sportist creates 98% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 16 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Levski Rakovski
0.88

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Levski Rakovski
2.19

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Levski Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Levski Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
81%
Rilski Sportist or Levski Rakovski
78%
Draw or Levski Rakovski
40%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
36%
Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
86%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
58%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
31%
Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
63%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
26%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
76%
Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Levski Rakovski away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Levski Rakovski defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.96

Levski Rakovski attack 0.88 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
60%
level
22%
Levski Rakovski scores more
19%

Rilski Sportist at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Rilski Sportist 2–1 Levski Rakovski

Rilski Sportist beat Levski Rakovski 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Iskar in Samokov.