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Levski Rakovski vs Rilski Sportist — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Rakovski
Levski Rakovski
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
5/6/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - Relegation Round - 8Stadion Rakovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Levski Rakovski38%
×Draw26%
Rilski Sportist36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Rakovski
1.36
Rilski Sportist
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 129 away

creates per match

Levski Rakovski
1.00
Rilski Sportist
1.07

allows per match

Levski Rakovski
1.56
Rilski Sportist
1.73

finishing

Levski Rakovski+0.00on par
Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Rakovski ↓

Rilski Sportist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Levski Rakovski or draw
64%
Levski Rakovski or Rilski Sportist
74%
Draw or Rilski Sportist
62%

Winning margin

Levski Rakovski wins by 2+
17%
Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Levski Rakovski 1+ goals
74%
Levski Rakovski 2+ goals
39%
Levski Rakovski 3+ goals
16%
Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
73%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
38%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Levski Rakovski (draw refunded)
52%
Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Rakovski at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Rakovski attack 1.00 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Levski Rakovski defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Levski Rakovski scores more
38%
level
26%
Rilski Sportist scores more
36%

Levski Rakovski at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Levski Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Levski Rakovski 0–0 Rilski Sportist

Levski Rakovski and Rilski Sportist drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rakovski in Sofia.