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Rilski Sportist vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
5/18/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 35Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rilski Sportist77%
×Draw14%
Levski Chepintsi9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
2.75
Levski Chepintsi
0.85

Rilski Sportist creates 224% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 36 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
91%
Rilski Sportist or Levski Chepintsi
86%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
23%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
56%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
93%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
75%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
51%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
57%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
21%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
89%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.75

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
77%
level
14%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
9%

Rilski Sportist at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Rilski Sportist 5–2 Levski Chepintsi

Rilski Sportist beat Levski Chepintsi 5-2 in Third League - Southwest on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Iskar in Samokov.