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Levski Chepintsi vs Rilski Sportist — Third League - Southwest 2018

Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
FT
1 – 1
Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
5/8/2021Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 30Stadion Chepintsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Levski Chepintsi33%
×Draw25%
Rilski Sportist42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Chepintsi
1.27
Rilski Sportist
1.47

Rilski Sportist creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 129 away

creates per match

Levski Chepintsi
0.81
Rilski Sportist
1.07

allows per match

Levski Chepintsi
1.86
Rilski Sportist
1.73

finishing

Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par
Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Chepintsi ↓

Rilski Sportist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Levski Chepintsi or draw
58%
Levski Chepintsi or Rilski Sportist
75%
Draw or Rilski Sportist
67%

Winning margin

Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
14%
Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
72%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
36%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
14%
Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
77%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
43%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
44%
Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Chepintsi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.86 · 36 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.81 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Levski Chepintsi defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Levski Chepintsi scores more
33%
level
25%
Rilski Sportist scores more
42%

Rilski Sportist at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Levski Chepintsi 1–1 Rilski Sportist

Levski Chepintsi and Rilski Sportist drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Chepintsi in Chepintsi.