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Rilski Sportist vs Kostinbrod — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
1 – 2
Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
2/24/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 21Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rilski Sportist51%
×Draw24%
Kostinbrod25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
1.68
Kostinbrod
1.10

Rilski Sportist creates 53% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 70 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Kostinbrod
1.10

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Kostinbrod
1.64

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Kostinbrod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
75%
Rilski Sportist or Kostinbrod
76%
Draw or Kostinbrod
49%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
27%
Kostinbrod wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
81%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
50%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
24%
Kostinbrod 1+ goals
67%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
30%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
67%
Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Kostinbrod away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.64 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Kostinbrod defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.68

Kostinbrod attack 1.10 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
51%
level
24%
Kostinbrod scores more
25%

Rilski Sportist at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Rilski Sportist 1–2 Kostinbrod

Kostinbrod beat Rilski Sportist 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Iskar in Samokov.