Kostinbrod 1–2 Rilski Sportist: Result & Stats

Kostinbrod

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rilski Sportist

9/17/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 8Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kostinbrod46%

×Draw25%

Rilski Sportist29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KostinbrodExpected goals in this matchRilski Sportist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Kostinbrod

1.52

Rilski Sportist

1.15

Kostinbrod creates 32% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 129 away

1.32

creates per match

1.07

1.22

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Kostinbrod

1.32

Rilski Sportist

1.07

allows per match

Kostinbrod

1.22

Rilski Sportist

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Rilski Sportist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw

71%

Kostinbrod or Rilski Sportist

75%

Draw or Rilski Sportist

54%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+

23%

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals

78%

Kostinbrod 2+ goals

45%

Kostinbrod 3+ goals

20%

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

68%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

32%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)

61%

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kostinbrod scores more

46%

level

25%

Rilski Sportist scores more

29%

Kostinbrod at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff