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Rilski Sportist vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
2 – 0
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
8/27/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 4Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rilski Sportist66%
×Draw19%
Granit Vladaya15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
2.17
Granit Vladaya
0.92

Rilski Sportist creates 136% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 70 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
85%
Rilski Sportist or Granit Vladaya
81%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
34%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
42%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
89%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
64%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
36%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
60%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
23%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
82%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.17

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
66%
level
19%
Granit Vladaya scores more
15%

Rilski Sportist at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rilski Sportist vs Granit Vladaya

Rilski Sportist beat Granit Vladaya 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Iskar in Samokov.