Granit Vladaya 2–2 Rilski Sportist: Result & Stats

Granit Vladaya

FT

2 – 2

Rilski Sportist

8/17/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 4Stadion Vladaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Granit Vladaya40%

×Draw25%

Rilski Sportist35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granit VladayaExpected goals in this matchRilski Sportist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.33

Granit Vladaya

1.44

Rilski Sportist

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 129 away

1.14

creates per match

1.07

1.59

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Granit Vladaya

1.14

Rilski Sportist

1.07

allows per match

Granit Vladaya

1.59

Rilski Sportist

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granit Vladaya ↓

Rilski Sportist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Granit Vladaya or draw

65%

Granit Vladaya or Rilski Sportist

75%

Draw or Rilski Sportist

60%

Winning margin

Granit Vladaya wins by 2+

19%

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Granit Vladaya 1+ goals

76%

Granit Vladaya 2+ goals

42%

Granit Vladaya 3+ goals

18%

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

74%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

38%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)

53%

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granit Vladaya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granit Vladaya attack 1.14 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Granit Vladaya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Granit Vladaya scores more

40%

level

25%

Rilski Sportist scores more

35%

Granit Vladaya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Granit Vladaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff