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Rilski Sportist vs CSKA 1948 Sofia III — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
8/14/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 3Stadion Vassil Levski Dolna Banya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Rilski Sportist51%
×Draw24%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
1.75
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.16

Rilski Sportist creates 51% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 52 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.21

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.79

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
75%
Rilski Sportist or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
76%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III
49%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
28%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
83%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
52%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
25%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
69%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
32%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
67%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
51%
level
24%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
25%

Rilski Sportist at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Rilski Sportist 5–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Rilski Sportist beat CSKA 1948 Sofia III 5-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Vassil Levski Dolna Banya in Dolna Banya.