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CSKA 1948 Sofia III vs Rilski Sportist — Third League - Southwest 2018

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
CSKA 1948 Sofia III
FT
2 – 0
Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
3/8/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 22Stadion Akademik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III47%
×Draw25%
Rilski Sportist29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.62
Rilski Sportist
1.21

CSKA 1948 Sofia III creates 34% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 129 away

creates per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.51
Rilski Sportist
1.07

allows per match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III
1.34
Rilski Sportist
1.73

finishing

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par
Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA 1948 Sofia III ↓

Rilski Sportist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CSKA 1948 Sofia III or draw
71%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III or Rilski Sportist
75%
Draw or Rilski Sportist
53%

Winning margin

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+
24%
Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals
80%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals
48%
CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals
22%
Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
70%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
34%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)
62%
Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.51 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more
47%
level
25%
Rilski Sportist scores more
29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2–0 Rilski Sportist

CSKA 1948 Sofia III beat Rilski Sportist 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Akademik in Sofia.