Rilski Sportist 1–1 Balkan Botevgrad

Rilski Sportist

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Balkan Botevgrad

11/23/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 19Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Rilski Sportist50%

×Draw24%

Balkan Botevgrad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rilski SportistExpected goals in this matchBalkan Botevgrad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.19

Rilski Sportist

1.73

Balkan Botevgrad

1.19

Rilski Sportist creates 45% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 131 away

1.72

creates per match

1.27

1.10

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Rilski Sportist

1.72

Balkan Botevgrad

1.27

allows per match

Rilski Sportist

1.10

Balkan Botevgrad

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Balkan Botevgrad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw

74%

Rilski Sportist or Balkan Botevgrad

76%

Draw or Balkan Botevgrad

50%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

27%

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

82%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

52%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

25%

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals

70%

Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals

33%

Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

65%

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Balkan Botevgrad away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.73 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.27 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more

50%

level

24%

Balkan Botevgrad scores more

26%

Rilski Sportist at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff