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Balkan Botevgrad vs Rilski Sportist — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
8/30/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 5Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad54%
×Draw23%
Rilski Sportist23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
1.81
Rilski Sportist
1.11

Balkan Botevgrad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 129 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
Rilski Sportist
1.07

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
Rilski Sportist
1.73

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Rilski Sportist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
77%
Balkan Botevgrad or Rilski Sportist
77%
Draw or Rilski Sportist
46%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
30%
Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
84%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
54%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
27%
Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
67%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
30%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
70%
Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.81

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
54%
level
23%
Rilski Sportist scores more
23%

Balkan Botevgrad at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Balkan Botevgrad 1–2 Rilski Sportist

Rilski Sportist beat Balkan Botevgrad 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Botevgrad.