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Rijnsburgse Boys vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
5/25/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 34Sportpark Middelmors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Rijnsburgse Boys50%
×Draw23%
Noordwijk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.89
Noordwijk
1.33

Rijnsburgse Boys creates 42% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 85 away

creates per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
2.13
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

Rijnsburgse Boys
1.21
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rijnsburgse Boys ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rijnsburgse Boys or draw
73%
Rijnsburgse Boys or Noordwijk
77%
Draw or Noordwijk
50%

Winning margin

Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
28%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
85%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
56%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
29%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
74%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
38%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
65%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rijnsburgse Boys at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 2.13 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
50%
level
23%
Noordwijk scores more
27%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Rijnsburgse Boys 2–3 Noordwijk

Noordwijk beat Rijnsburgse Boys 3-2 in Tweede Divisie on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Middelmors in Rijnsburg.