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Noordwijk vs Rijnsburgse Boys — Tweede Divisie 2019

Noordwijk
Noordwijk
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Rijnsburgse Boys
Rijnsburgse Boys
12/16/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 17Sportpark Duinwetering

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Noordwijk37%
×Draw23%
Rijnsburgse Boys41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Noordwijk
1.67
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 99 away

creates per match

Noordwijk
1.70
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.95

allows per match

Noordwijk
1.58
Rijnsburgse Boys
1.64

finishing

Noordwijk+0.00on par
Rijnsburgse Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Noordwijk ↓

Rijnsburgse Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Noordwijk or draw
59%
Noordwijk or Rijnsburgse Boys
77%
Draw or Rijnsburgse Boys
63%

Winning margin

Noordwijk wins by 2+
18%
Rijnsburgse Boys wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Noordwijk 1+ goals
81%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
50%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
23%
Rijnsburgse Boys 1+ goals
83%
Rijnsburgse Boys 2+ goals
53%
Rijnsburgse Boys 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Noordwijk (draw refunded)
47%
Rijnsburgse Boys (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Noordwijk at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

Rijnsburgse Boys away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.64 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Noordwijk attack 1.70 + Rijnsburgse Boys defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rijnsburgse Boys attack 1.95 + Noordwijk defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Noordwijk scores more
37%
level
23%
Rijnsburgse Boys scores more
41%

Rijnsburgse Boys at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rijnsburgse Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Noordwijk 1–4 Rijnsburgse Boys

Rijnsburgse Boys beat Noordwijk 4-1 in Tweede Divisie on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Duinwetering in Noordwijk.