Rīgas FS 2–2 Linfield: Result & Stats

Rīgas FS

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Linfield

8/18/2022

UEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsStadions Skonto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rīgas FS47%

×Draw26%

Linfield27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rīgas FSExpected goals in this matchLinfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.06

Rīgas FS

1.47

Linfield

1.06

Rīgas FS creates 39% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

0.70

1.42

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Rīgas FS

1.33

Linfield

0.70

allows per match

Rīgas FS

1.42

Linfield

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Linfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS ↓

Linfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rīgas FS or draw

73%

Rīgas FS or Linfield

74%

Draw or Linfield

53%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS wins by 2+

23%

Linfield wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rīgas FS 1+ goals

77%

Rīgas FS 2+ goals

43%

Rīgas FS 3+ goals

18%

Linfield 1+ goals

65%

Linfield 2+ goals

29%

Linfield 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)

63%

Linfield (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

Linfield away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS attack 1.33 + Linfield defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.47

Linfield attack 0.70 + Rīgas FS defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rīgas FS scores more

47%

level

26%

Linfield scores more

27%

Rīgas FS at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rīgas FS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff