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Linfield vs Rīgas FS — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Linfield
Linfield
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rīgas FS
Rīgas FS
8/25/2022UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Play-offsWindsor Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Linfield44%
×Draw23%
Rīgas FS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Linfield
1.71
Rīgas FS
1.43

Linfield creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Linfield
2.11
Rīgas FS
1.30

allows per match

Linfield
1.56
Rīgas FS
1.30

finishing

Linfield+0.00on par
Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Linfield ↓

Rīgas FS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Linfield or draw
68%
Linfield or Rīgas FS
77%
Draw or Rīgas FS
56%

Winning margin

Linfield wins by 2+
23%
Rīgas FS wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Linfield 1+ goals
82%
Linfield 2+ goals
51%
Linfield 3+ goals
24%
Rīgas FS 1+ goals
76%
Rīgas FS 2+ goals
42%
Rīgas FS 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Linfield (draw refunded)
58%
Rīgas FS (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Linfield at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Linfield attack 2.11 + Rīgas FS defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.71

Rīgas FS attack 1.30 + Linfield defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Linfield scores more
44%
level
23%
Rīgas FS scores more
32%

Linfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Linfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Linfield vs Rīgas FS

Linfield and Rīgas FS drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 25, 2022.

The match was played at Windsor Park in Belfast.