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Rīgas FS II vs Progress / AFA Olaine — 1. Liga 2026

Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
8/10/20241. Liga1. Liga · Round 15LNK Sporta Parks 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Rīgas FS II69%
×Draw16%
Progress / AFA Olaine15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rīgas FS II
2.84
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.30

Rīgas FS II creates 118% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 52 away

creates per match

Rīgas FS II
2.70
Progress / AFA Olaine
1.38

allows per match

Rīgas FS II
1.22
Progress / AFA Olaine
2.98

finishing

Rīgas FS II+0.00on par
Progress / AFA Olaine+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rīgas FS II ↓

Progress / AFA Olaine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Rīgas FS II or draw
85%
Rīgas FS II or Progress / AFA Olaine
84%
Draw or Progress / AFA Olaine
31%

Winning margin

Rīgas FS II wins by 2+
48%
Progress / AFA Olaine wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rīgas FS II 1+ goals
94%
Rīgas FS II 2+ goals
77%
Rīgas FS II 3+ goals
53%
Progress / AFA Olaine 1+ goals
73%
Progress / AFA Olaine 2+ goals
37%
Progress / AFA Olaine 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rīgas FS II (draw refunded)
82%
Progress / AFA Olaine (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rīgas FS II at home — creates 2.70, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Progress / AFA Olaine away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rīgas FS II attack 2.70 + Progress / AFA Olaine defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.84

Progress / AFA Olaine attack 1.38 + Rīgas FS II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rīgas FS II scores more
69%
level
16%
Progress / AFA Olaine scores more
15%

Rīgas FS II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Rīgas FS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rīgas FS II vs Progress / AFA Olaine

Rīgas FS II beat Progress / AFA Olaine 3-1 in 1. Liga on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at LNK Sporta Parks 2 in Riga.