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Progress / AFA Olaine vs Rīgas FS II — 1. Liga 2026

Progress / AFA Olaine
Progress / AFA Olaine
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Rīgas FS II
Rīgas FS II
11/4/20231. Liga1. Liga · Round 25Olaines stadions

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Progress / AFA Olaine31%
×Draw21%
Rīgas FS II48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progress / AFA Olaine
1.60
Rīgas FS II
2.04

Rīgas FS II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 56 away

creates per match

Progress / AFA Olaine
1.65
Rīgas FS II
1.84

allows per match

Progress / AFA Olaine
2.23
Rīgas FS II
1.55

finishing

Progress / AFA Olaine+0.00on par
Rīgas FS II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progress / AFA Olaine ↓

Rīgas FS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Progress / AFA Olaine or draw
52%
Progress / AFA Olaine or Rīgas FS II
79%
Draw or Rīgas FS II
69%

Winning margin

Progress / AFA Olaine wins by 2+
15%
Rīgas FS II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Progress / AFA Olaine 1+ goals
80%
Progress / AFA Olaine 2+ goals
47%
Progress / AFA Olaine 3+ goals
22%
Rīgas FS II 1+ goals
87%
Rīgas FS II 2+ goals
60%
Rīgas FS II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Progress / AFA Olaine (draw refunded)
39%
Rīgas FS II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progress / AFA Olaine at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

Rīgas FS II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.55 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progress / AFA Olaine attack 1.65 + Rīgas FS II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rīgas FS II attack 1.84 + Progress / AFA Olaine defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Progress / AFA Olaine scores more
31%
level
21%
Rīgas FS II scores more
48%

Rīgas FS II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rīgas FS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progress / AFA Olaine vs Rīgas FS II

Progress / AFA Olaine and Rīgas FS II drew 3-3 in 1. Liga on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Olaines stadions in Olaine.