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Ried II vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Ried II
Ried II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gurten
Gurten
9/5/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 6Innviertel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Ried II34%
×Draw24%
Gurten42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried II
1.44
Gurten
1.61

Gurten creates 12% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 106 away

creates per match

Ried II
1.71
Gurten
1.58

allows per match

Ried II
1.64
Gurten
1.18

finishing

Ried II+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried II ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ried II or draw
58%
Ried II or Gurten
76%
Draw or Gurten
66%

Winning margin

Ried II wins by 2+
16%
Gurten wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ried II 1+ goals
76%
Ried II 2+ goals
42%
Ried II 3+ goals
18%
Gurten 1+ goals
80%
Gurten 2+ goals
48%
Gurten 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ried II (draw refunded)
45%
Gurten (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 90 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried II attack 1.71 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gurten attack 1.58 + Ried II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ried II scores more
34%
level
24%
Gurten scores more
42%

Gurten at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Ried II 4–0 Gurten

Ried II beat Gurten 4-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 5, 2024.

The match was played at Innviertel Arena in Ried Im Innkreis.