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Gurten vs Ried II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ried II
Ried II
5/1/2026Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 25Park21-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Gurten58%
×Draw21%
Ried II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
2.09
Ried II
1.18

Gurten creates 77% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 91 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.74
Ried II
1.53

allows per match

Gurten
0.82
Ried II
2.44

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Ried II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Ried II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
79%
Gurten or Ried II
79%
Draw or Ried II
42%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
35%
Ried II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
88%
Gurten 2+ goals
62%
Gurten 3+ goals
34%
Ried II 1+ goals
69%
Ried II 2+ goals
33%
Ried II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
73%
Ried II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

Ried II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.44 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + Ried II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.09

Ried II attack 1.53 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Gurten scores more
58%
level
21%
Ried II scores more
21%

Gurten at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Gurten 3–0 Ried II

Gurten beat Ried II 3-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on May 1, 2026.

The match was played at Park21-Arena in Gurten.