Ried II 1–2 Deutschlandsberger SC: Result & Stats

Ried II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deutschlandsberger SC

5/28/2025

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 29Innviertel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Ried II41%

×Draw23%

Deutschlandsberger SC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ried IIExpected goals in this matchDeutschlandsberger SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.62

Ried II

1.72

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 107 away

1.71

creates per match

1.60

1.64

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Ried II

1.71

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.60

allows per match

Ried II

1.64

Deutschlandsberger SC

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ried II+0.00on par

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried II ↓

Deutschlandsberger SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ried II or draw

64%

Ried II or Deutschlandsberger SC

77%

Draw or Deutschlandsberger SC

59%

Winning margin

Ried II wins by 2+

21%

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ried II 1+ goals

82%

Ried II 2+ goals

51%

Ried II 3+ goals

25%

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals

80%

Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals

48%

Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Ried II (draw refunded)

53%

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 90 matches

Deutschlandsberger SC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried II attack 1.71 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.72

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 1.60 + Ried II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ried II scores more

41%

level

23%

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more

36%

Ried II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ried II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff