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Deutschlandsberger SC vs Ried II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Deutschlandsberger SC
Deutschlandsberger SC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ried II
Ried II
3/8/2024Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 17Koralmstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Deutschlandsberger SC56%
×Draw20%
Ried II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deutschlandsberger SC
2.30
Ried II
1.45

Deutschlandsberger SC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 91 away

creates per match

Deutschlandsberger SC
2.17
Ried II
1.53

allows per match

Deutschlandsberger SC
1.37
Ried II
2.44

finishing

Deutschlandsberger SC+0.00on par
Ried II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deutschlandsberger SC ↓

Ried II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Deutschlandsberger SC or draw
76%
Deutschlandsberger SC or Ried II
80%
Draw or Ried II
44%

Winning margin

Deutschlandsberger SC wins by 2+
35%
Ried II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deutschlandsberger SC 1+ goals
90%
Deutschlandsberger SC 2+ goals
67%
Deutschlandsberger SC 3+ goals
40%
Ried II 1+ goals
77%
Ried II 2+ goals
42%
Ried II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Deutschlandsberger SC (draw refunded)
70%
Ried II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deutschlandsberger SC at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.37 · 105 matches

Ried II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.44 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deutschlandsberger SC attack 2.17 + Ried II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.30

Ried II attack 1.53 + Deutschlandsberger SC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deutschlandsberger SC scores more
56%
level
20%
Ried II scores more
24%

Deutschlandsberger SC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deutschlandsberger SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deutschlandsberger SC vs Ried II

Ried II beat Deutschlandsberger SC 2-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Koralmstadion in Deutschlandsberg.