Ried II 2–1 ASK Klagenfurt: Result & Stats

Ried II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

ASK Klagenfurt

5/11/2024

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 26Innviertel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ried II41%

×Draw23%

ASK Klagenfurt36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ried IIExpected goals in this matchASK Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.58

Ried II

1.71

ASK Klagenfurt

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 25 away

1.71

creates per match

1.52

1.64

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Ried II

1.71

ASK Klagenfurt

1.52

allows per match

Ried II

1.64

ASK Klagenfurt

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ried II+0.00on par

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried II ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ried II or draw

64%

Ried II or ASK Klagenfurt

77%

Draw or ASK Klagenfurt

59%

Winning margin

Ried II wins by 2+

21%

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Ried II 1+ goals

82%

Ried II 2+ goals

51%

Ried II 3+ goals

24%

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

79%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

47%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ried II (draw refunded)

54%

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 90 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried II attack 1.71 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.52 + Ried II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ried II scores more

41%

level

23%

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

36%

Ried II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ried II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff