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ASK Klagenfurt vs Ried II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Ried II
Ried II
10/8/2023Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 11ASK-Sportanlage Fischl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

ASK Klagenfurt52%
×Draw21%
Ried II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASK Klagenfurt
2.19
Ried II
1.55

ASK Klagenfurt creates 41% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 91 away

creates per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.95
Ried II
1.53

allows per match

ASK Klagenfurt
1.57
Ried II
2.44

finishing

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Ried II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASK Klagenfurt ↓

Ried II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

ASK Klagenfurt or draw
73%
ASK Klagenfurt or Ried II
79%
Draw or Ried II
48%

Winning margin

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
31%
Ried II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
89%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
64%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
37%
Ried II 1+ goals
79%
Ried II 2+ goals
46%
Ried II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
66%
Ried II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASK Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Ried II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.44 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.95 + Ried II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.19

Ried II attack 1.53 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ASK Klagenfurt scores more
52%
level
21%
Ried II scores more
27%

ASK Klagenfurt at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: ASK Klagenfurt 3–3 Ried II

ASK Klagenfurt and Ried II drew 3-3 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at ASK-Sportanlage Fischl in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.