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Ried II vs Allerheiligen — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Ried II
Ried II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Allerheiligen
Allerheiligen
5/28/2022Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 32josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ried II43%
×Draw23%
Allerheiligen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried II
1.75
Allerheiligen
1.54

Ried II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ried II
1.71
Allerheiligen
1.44

allows per match

Ried II
1.64
Allerheiligen
1.79

finishing

Ried II+0.00on par
Allerheiligen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried II ↓

Allerheiligen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ried II or draw
66%
Ried II or Allerheiligen
77%
Draw or Allerheiligen
57%

Winning margin

Ried II wins by 2+
23%
Allerheiligen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ried II 1+ goals
83%
Ried II 2+ goals
52%
Ried II 3+ goals
25%
Allerheiligen 1+ goals
79%
Allerheiligen 2+ goals
45%
Allerheiligen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ried II (draw refunded)
56%
Allerheiligen (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried II at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 90 matches

Allerheiligen away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.79 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried II attack 1.71 + Allerheiligen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.75

Allerheiligen attack 1.44 + Ried II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ried II scores more
43%
level
23%
Allerheiligen scores more
34%

Ried II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ried II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Ried II 0–2 Allerheiligen

Allerheiligen beat Ried II 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at josko ARENA in Ried Im Innkreis.