Allerheiligen 2–3 Ried II: Result & Stats

Allerheiligen

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Ried II

11/7/2023

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 15Sportanlage Allerheiligen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Allerheiligen50%

×Draw21%

Ried II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AllerheiligenExpected goals in this matchRied II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.59

Allerheiligen

2.13

Ried II

1.59

Allerheiligen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 91 away

1.81

creates per match

1.53

1.65

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Allerheiligen

1.81

Ried II

1.53

allows per match

Allerheiligen

1.65

Ried II

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Allerheiligen+0.00on par

Ried II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Allerheiligen ↓

Ried II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Allerheiligen or draw

71%

Allerheiligen or Ried II

79%

Draw or Ried II

50%

Winning margin

Allerheiligen wins by 2+

29%

Ried II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Allerheiligen 1+ goals

88%

Allerheiligen 2+ goals

63%

Allerheiligen 3+ goals

35%

Ried II 1+ goals

80%

Ried II 2+ goals

47%

Ried II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Allerheiligen (draw refunded)

63%

Ried II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Allerheiligen at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.65 · 75 matches

Ried II away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.44 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Allerheiligen attack 1.81 + Ried II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.13

Ried II attack 1.53 + Allerheiligen defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Allerheiligen scores more

50%

level

21%

Ried II scores more

29%

Allerheiligen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Allerheiligen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff