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Richmond Kickers vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
3/24/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 3City Stadium (Richmond, Virginia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Richmond Kickers32%
×Draw25%
Indy Eleven43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richmond Kickers
1.28
Indy Eleven
1.52

Indy Eleven creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 127 away

creates per match

Richmond Kickers
1.00
Indy Eleven
1.10

allows per match

Richmond Kickers
1.94
Indy Eleven
1.56

finishing

Richmond Kickers+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richmond Kickers ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Richmond Kickers or draw
57%
Richmond Kickers or Indy Eleven
75%
Draw or Indy Eleven
68%

Winning margin

Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
14%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
72%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
37%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
14%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
78%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
45%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
43%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richmond Kickers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richmond Kickers attack 1.00 + Indy Eleven defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Richmond Kickers defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Richmond Kickers scores more
32%
level
25%
Indy Eleven scores more
43%

Indy Eleven at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Richmond Kickers vs Indy Eleven

Indy Eleven beat Richmond Kickers 1-0 in USL Championship on March 24, 2018.

The match was played at City Stadium (Richmond, Virginia).