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Indy Eleven vs Richmond Kickers — USL Championship 2026

Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers
9/1/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 45Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Indy Eleven64%
×Draw20%
Richmond Kickers16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Indy Eleven
2.09
Richmond Kickers
0.94

Indy Eleven creates 122% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 17 away

creates per match

Indy Eleven
1.48
Richmond Kickers
0.76

allows per match

Indy Eleven
1.11
Richmond Kickers
2.71

finishing

Indy Eleven+0.00on par
Richmond Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Indy Eleven ↓

Richmond Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Indy Eleven or draw
84%
Indy Eleven or Richmond Kickers
80%
Draw or Richmond Kickers
36%

Winning margin

Indy Eleven wins by 2+
40%
Richmond Kickers wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Indy Eleven 1+ goals
88%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
62%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
34%
Richmond Kickers 1+ goals
61%
Richmond Kickers 2+ goals
24%
Richmond Kickers 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
80%
Richmond Kickers (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Indy Eleven at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 132 matches

Richmond Kickers away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Indy Eleven attack 1.48 + Richmond Kickers defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.09

Richmond Kickers attack 0.76 + Indy Eleven defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Indy Eleven scores more
64%
level
20%
Richmond Kickers scores more
16%

Indy Eleven at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Indy Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Indy Eleven vs Richmond Kickers

Indy Eleven and Richmond Kickers drew 1-1 in USL Championship on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Indiana).