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Richards Bay vs Orlando Pirates — Premier Soccer League 2018

Richards Bay
Richards Bay
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orlando Pirates
Orlando Pirates
9/29/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 3King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay29%
×Draw32%
Orlando Pirates39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richards Bay
0.86
Orlando Pirates
1.04

Orlando Pirates creates 21% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 119 away

creates per match

Richards Bay
0.89
Orlando Pirates
1.26

allows per match

Richards Bay
0.81
Orlando Pirates
0.83

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par
Orlando Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Orlando Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw
61%
Richards Bay or Orlando Pirates
68%
Draw or Orlando Pirates
71%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+
10%
Orlando Pirates wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals
58%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
21%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
6%
Orlando Pirates 1+ goals
65%
Orlando Pirates 2+ goals
28%
Orlando Pirates 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)
43%
Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Orlando Pirates away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.83 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Orlando Pirates attack 1.26 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Richards Bay scores more
29%
level
32%
Orlando Pirates scores more
39%

Orlando Pirates at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Richards Bay vs Orlando Pirates

Orlando Pirates beat Richards Bay 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium in Durban, KN.