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Orlando Pirates vs Richards Bay — Premier Soccer League 2018

Orlando Pirates
Orlando Pirates
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Richards Bay
Richards Bay
5/11/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Orlando Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Orlando Pirates55%
×Draw28%
Richards Bay18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlando Pirates
1.39
Richards Bay
0.66

Orlando Pirates creates 111% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 63 away

creates per match

Orlando Pirates
1.56
Richards Bay
0.62

allows per match

Orlando Pirates
0.70
Richards Bay
1.22

finishing

Orlando Pirates+0.00on par
Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlando Pirates ↓

Richards Bay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Orlando Pirates or draw
82%
Orlando Pirates or Richards Bay
72%
Draw or Richards Bay
45%

Winning margin

Orlando Pirates wins by 2+
27%
Richards Bay wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Orlando Pirates 1+ goals
75%
Orlando Pirates 2+ goals
40%
Orlando Pirates 3+ goals
16%
Richards Bay 1+ goals
48%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
14%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Orlando Pirates (draw refunded)
75%
Richards Bay (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlando Pirates at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.70 · 119 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlando Pirates attack 1.56 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.39

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Orlando Pirates defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Orlando Pirates scores more
55%
level
28%
Richards Bay scores more
18%

Orlando Pirates at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Orlando Pirates will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Orlando Pirates 0–1 Richards Bay

Richards Bay beat Orlando Pirates 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Orlando Stadium in Johannesburg, GA.