Richards Bay 0–0 Maritzburg Utd: Result & Stats

Richards Bay

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Maritzburg Utd

10/15/2022

Premier Soccer League · Round 8King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay42%

×Draw33%

Maritzburg Utd26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richards BayExpected goals in this matchMaritzburg Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.73

Richards Bay

1.02

Maritzburg Utd

0.73

Richards Bay creates 40% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 77 away

0.89

creates per match

0.64

0.81

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Richards Bay

0.89

Maritzburg Utd

0.64

allows per match

Richards Bay

0.81

Maritzburg Utd

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Maritzburg Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

52%48%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw

74%

Richards Bay or Maritzburg Utd

67%

Draw or Maritzburg Utd

58%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+

16%

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals

64%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

27%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

8%

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals

52%

Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals

17%

Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

62%

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Maritzburg Utd away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Maritzburg Utd attack 0.64 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Richards Bay scores more

42%

level

33%

Maritzburg Utd scores more

26%

Richards Bay at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff