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Maritzburg Utd vs Richards Bay — Premier Soccer League 2018

Maritzburg Utd
Maritzburg Utd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Richards Bay
Richards Bay
4/21/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 21Harry Gwala Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Maritzburg Utd43%
×Draw31%
Richards Bay27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maritzburg Utd
1.13
Richards Bay
0.83

Maritzburg Utd creates 36% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 63 away

creates per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.03
Richards Bay
0.62

allows per match

Maritzburg Utd
1.04
Richards Bay
1.22

finishing

Maritzburg Utd+0.00on par
Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maritzburg Utd ↓

Richards Bay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Maritzburg Utd or draw
73%
Maritzburg Utd or Richards Bay
69%
Draw or Richards Bay
57%

Winning margin

Maritzburg Utd wins by 2+
18%
Richards Bay wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maritzburg Utd 1+ goals
68%
Maritzburg Utd 2+ goals
31%
Maritzburg Utd 3+ goals
11%
Richards Bay 1+ goals
56%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
20%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Maritzburg Utd (draw refunded)
61%
Richards Bay (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maritzburg Utd at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.04 · 77 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maritzburg Utd attack 1.03 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Maritzburg Utd defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maritzburg Utd scores more
43%
level
31%
Richards Bay scores more
27%

Maritzburg Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Maritzburg Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maritzburg Utd vs Richards Bay

Maritzburg Utd and Richards Bay drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Harry Gwala Stadium in Pietermaritzburg, KN.