Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Richards Bay vs Durban City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Richards Bay
Richards Bay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Durban City
Durban City
11/23/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 13Umhlathuze Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Richards Bay40%
×Draw33%
Durban City27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richards Bay
1.01
Durban City
0.77

Richards Bay creates 31% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 15 away

creates per match

Richards Bay
0.89
Durban City
0.73

allows per match

Richards Bay
0.81
Durban City
1.13

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par
Durban City+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Durban City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw
73%
Richards Bay or Durban City
67%
Draw or Durban City
60%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+
16%
Durban City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals
64%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
27%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
8%
Durban City 1+ goals
54%
Durban City 2+ goals
18%
Durban City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)
60%
Durban City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Durban City away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Durban City defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.01

Durban City attack 0.73 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Richards Bay scores more
40%
level
33%
Durban City scores more
27%

Richards Bay at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. KeetDurban CityDurban City · G
7.6

Match Events

10'
T. Zuke← T. Mabua
60'
N. Mbulelo← T. Ndelu
61'
J. Kamatuka← L. Koapeng
77'
M. Thikazi← W. Ngema
77'
L. Mahala← M. Mthembu
77'
G. Mhango← K. Mutizwa
81'
S. Magawana← S. Maseko
81'
L. Sifumba← B. Mokwena
86'
J. Lwamba← H. Domingo

Possession

54%Richards

Shots

8Richards

Pass accuracy

49%Richards

Statistics

RichardsDurban
Overview
54%Possession46%
8Total Shots11
4Corners4
13Fouls16
Shots
8Total Shots11
2On Target0
5Off Target8
1Blocked3
4Inside Box7
4Outside Box4
Passing
54%Possession46%
350Total Passes292
236Accurate Passes205
67%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls16
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Richards Bay vs Durban City

Richards Bay and Durban City drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 23, 2025.

Richards Bay controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Umhlathuze Sports Stadium in Richards Bay.