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Durban City vs Richards Bay — Premier Soccer League 2018

Durban City
Durban City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Richards Bay
Richards Bay
S. Maseko 79'
3/22/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Chatsworth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Durban City46%
×Draw33%
Richards Bay21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Durban City
1.07
Richards Bay
0.61

Durban City creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 63 away

creates per match

Durban City
0.93
Richards Bay
0.62

allows per match

Durban City
0.60
Richards Bay
1.22

finishing

Durban City+0.00on par
Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Durban City ↓

Richards Bay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Durban City or draw
79%
Durban City or Richards Bay
67%
Draw or Richards Bay
54%

Winning margin

Durban City wins by 2+
19%
Richards Bay wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Durban City 1+ goals
66%
Durban City 2+ goals
29%
Durban City 3+ goals
9%
Richards Bay 1+ goals
46%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
13%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Durban City (draw refunded)
69%
Richards Bay (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Durban City at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Durban City attack 0.93 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Durban City defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Durban City scores more
46%
level
33%
Richards Bay scores more
21%

Durban City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Durban City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
B. PoggenpoelDurban CityDurban City · M
7.9

Match Events

61'
T. Nodada← L. Sifumba
62'
Sanele Barns
65'
L. Zikhali← S. Nzama
71'
E. Jalai← F. Gcaba
71'
J. Lwamba← B. Mokwena
75'
W. Ngema← S. Barns
75'
K. Ndlangamandla← L. Mahala
77'
Kyle Jurgens
79'
S. Maseko↳ S. Magawana
85'
L. Mabuya← T. Sikhakhane
85'
L. Khumalo← T. Mthethwa
87'
Terrence Mashego
90+1'
B. Mthembu← S. Maseko

Possession

49%Durban

Shots

12Durban

Pass accuracy

51%Durban

Statistics

DurbanRichards
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots11
9Corners9
6Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots11
6On Target4
5Off Target5
1Blocked2
10Inside Box6
2Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
360Total Passes378
278Accurate Passes281
77%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves5
Discipline
6Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Durban City vs Richards Bay

Durban City beat Richards Bay 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on March 22, 2026.

Goals: S. Maseko (79').

Richards Bay controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Chatsworth Stadium in Chatsworth.