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Richards Bay vs Chippa United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Richards Bay
Richards Bay
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chippa United
Chippa United
8/26/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 4Umhlathuze Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay42%
×Draw31%
Chippa United26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richards Bay
1.11
Chippa United
0.81

Richards Bay creates 37% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 120 away

creates per match

Richards Bay
0.89
Chippa United
0.82

allows per match

Richards Bay
0.81
Chippa United
1.33

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par
Chippa United+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Chippa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw
74%
Richards Bay or Chippa United
69%
Draw or Chippa United
58%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+
18%
Chippa United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals
67%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
30%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
10%
Chippa United 1+ goals
56%
Chippa United 2+ goals
19%
Chippa United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)
62%
Chippa United (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Chippa United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Chippa United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Chippa United attack 0.82 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Richards Bay scores more
42%
level
31%
Chippa United scores more
26%

Richards Bay at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Richards Bay vs Chippa United

Richards Bay beat Chippa United 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 26, 2025.

The match was played at Umhlathuze Sports Stadium in Richards Bay.