Chippa United 3–0 Richards Bay: Result & Stats

Chippa United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Richards Bay

2/14/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 18Buffalo City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Chippa United40%

×Draw32%

Richards Bay28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chippa UnitedExpected goals in this matchRichards Bay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.80

Chippa United

1.02

Richards Bay

0.80

Chippa United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 63 away

0.81

creates per match

0.62

0.99

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Chippa United

0.81

Richards Bay

0.62

allows per match

Chippa United

0.99

Richards Bay

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chippa United+0.00on par

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chippa United ↓

Richards Bay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Chippa United or draw

72%

Chippa United or Richards Bay

68%

Draw or Richards Bay

60%

Winning margin

Chippa United wins by 2+

16%

Richards Bay wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Chippa United 1+ goals

64%

Chippa United 2+ goals

27%

Chippa United 3+ goals

8%

Richards Bay 1+ goals

55%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

19%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chippa United (draw refunded)

59%

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chippa United at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 120 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chippa United attack 0.81 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Chippa United defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chippa United scores more

40%

level

32%

Richards Bay scores more

28%

Chippa United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Chippa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff