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Ribert vs Numancia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ribert
Ribert
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Numancia II
Numancia II
4/10/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 31Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ribert44%
×Draw27%
Numancia II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribert
1.39
Numancia II
1.07

Ribert creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ribert
1.19
Numancia II
0.95

allows per match

Ribert
1.19
Numancia II
1.58

finishing

Ribert+0.00on par
Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribert ↓

Numancia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ribert or draw
71%
Ribert or Numancia II
73%
Draw or Numancia II
56%

Winning margin

Ribert wins by 2+
21%
Numancia II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ribert 1+ goals
75%
Ribert 2+ goals
40%
Ribert 3+ goals
16%
Numancia II 1+ goals
66%
Numancia II 2+ goals
29%
Numancia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ribert (draw refunded)
60%
Numancia II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribert at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribert attack 1.19 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Numancia II attack 0.95 + Ribert defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ribert scores more
44%
level
27%
Numancia II scores more
29%

Ribert at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ribert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ribert vs Numancia II

Ribert and Numancia II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.