Numancia II 2–2 Ribert: Result & Stats

Numancia II

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Ribert

11/27/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Ciudad del Fútbol Francisco Rubio Garcés Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Numancia II52%

×Draw24%

Ribert24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Numancia IIExpected goals in this matchRibert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.09

Numancia II

1.71

Ribert

1.09

Numancia II creates 57% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 16 away

1.53

creates per match

0.94

1.25

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Numancia II

1.53

Ribert

0.94

allows per match

Numancia II

1.25

Ribert

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia II+0.00on par

Ribert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia II ↓

Ribert →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Numancia II or draw

76%

Numancia II or Ribert

76%

Draw or Ribert

48%

Winning margin

Numancia II wins by 2+

28%

Ribert wins by 2+

Team goals

Numancia II 1+ goals

82%

Numancia II 2+ goals

51%

Numancia II 3+ goals

24%

Ribert 1+ goals

66%

Ribert 2+ goals

30%

Ribert 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Numancia II (draw refunded)

68%

Ribert (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Numancia II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Ribert away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Numancia II attack 1.53 + Ribert defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ribert attack 0.94 + Numancia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Numancia II scores more

52%

level

24%

Ribert scores more

24%

Numancia II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Numancia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff