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Ribert vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ribert
Ribert
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
3/26/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 29Pistas del Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ribert41%
×Draw27%
La Virgen del Camino32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribert
1.31
La Virgen del Camino
1.12

Ribert creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ribert
1.19
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Ribert
1.19
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Ribert+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribert ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ribert or draw
68%
Ribert or La Virgen del Camino
73%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
59%

Winning margin

Ribert wins by 2+
19%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ribert 1+ goals
73%
Ribert 2+ goals
38%
Ribert 3+ goals
14%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
67%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
31%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ribert (draw refunded)
56%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribert at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribert attack 1.19 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Ribert defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ribert scores more
41%
level
27%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
32%

Ribert at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ribert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Ribert 0–1 La Virgen del Camino

La Virgen del Camino beat Ribert 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Pistas del Helmántico in Salamanca.