La Virgen del Camino 1–1 Ribert: Result & Stats

La Virgen del Camino

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Ribert

Mario Visa 86' (pen)

Murci 60'

11/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

La Virgen del Camino50%

×Draw26%

Ribert24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Virgen del CaminoExpected goals in this matchRibert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.94

La Virgen del Camino

1.49

Ribert

0.94

La Virgen del Camino creates 59% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 16 away

1.10

creates per match

0.94

0.93

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino

1.10

Ribert

0.94

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino

0.93

Ribert

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Ribert+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Ribert →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw

76%

La Virgen del Camino or Ribert

74%

Draw or Ribert

50%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+

25%

Ribert wins by 2+

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals

77%

La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals

44%

La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals

19%

Ribert 1+ goals

61%

Ribert 2+ goals

24%

Ribert 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)

68%

Ribert (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Ribert away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Ribert defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ribert attack 0.94 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more

50%

level

26%

Ribert scores more

24%

La Virgen del Camino at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Víctor Abajo← Álvaro Mongil

60'

Murci

67'

Acosta← Chema Suárez

67'

Swelihle Sigudla← Abel Calleja

75'

Nono← Alvaro Jiménez

84'

J. Alonso← Raúl Calvo

86'

Mario VisaPenalty

Ribert

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Nanín

67'▲Acosta←▼Chema Suárez

67'▲Swelihle Sigudla←▼Abel Calleja

La Virgen del Camino substitutes

AcostaSigudla

Manager: Pedro Hernández

46'▲Víctor Abajo←▼Álvaro Mongil

75'▲Nono←▼Alvaro Jiménez

84'▲J. Alonso←▼Raúl Calvo

Ribert substitutes

AbajoNonoAlonso

Match Recap: La Virgen del Camino vs Ribert

La Virgen del Camino and Ribert drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 14, 2021.

Goals: Murci (60'), Mario Visa (86' pen).

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.

La Virgen del Camino vs Ribert — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: La Virgen del Camino vs Ribert