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Ribamontán al Mar vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
12/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar17%
×Draw24%
Racing Santander II59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribamontán al Mar
0.74
Racing Santander II
1.65

Racing Santander II creates 123% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar
0.63
Racing Santander II
1.56

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar
1.73
Racing Santander II
0.85

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par
Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Racing Santander II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw
41%
Ribamontán al Mar or Racing Santander II
76%
Draw or Racing Santander II
83%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
5%
Racing Santander II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
52%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
17%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
4%
Racing Santander II 1+ goals
81%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
49%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
22%
Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.74

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more
17%
level
24%
Racing Santander II scores more
59%

Racing Santander II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ribamontán al Mar 1 – 2 Racing Santander II

Racing Santander II beat Ribamontán al Mar 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Baceñuela in Galizano, Ribamontán al Mar.