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Racing Santander II vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
CANC
00:00
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Estadio La Albericia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Racing Santander II66%
×Draw19%
Ribamontán al Mar15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander II
2.19
Ribamontán al Mar
0.93

Racing Santander II creates 135% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Racing Santander II
2.37
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Racing Santander II
0.89
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw
85%
Racing Santander II or Ribamontán al Mar
81%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
34%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+
42%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals
89%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
64%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
37%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
61%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
24%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
82%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Racing Santander II scores more
66%
level
19%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
15%

Racing Santander II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Racing Santander II face Ribamontán al Mar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 returns with Racing Santander II hosting Ribamontán al Mar. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Racing Santander II host Ribamontán al Mar at Estadio La Albericia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.