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Ribamontán al Mar vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guarnizo
Guarnizo
2/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar23%
×Draw26%
Guarnizo50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribamontán al Mar
0.92
Guarnizo
1.48

Guarnizo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar
0.63
Guarnizo
1.23

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar
1.73
Guarnizo
1.20

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par
Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Guarnizo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw
50%
Ribamontán al Mar or Guarnizo
74%
Draw or Guarnizo
77%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
8%
Guarnizo wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
60%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
23%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
7%
Guarnizo 1+ goals
77%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
43%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
32%
Guarnizo (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.92

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more
23%
level
26%
Guarnizo scores more
50%

Guarnizo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guarnizo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ribamontán al Mar 1 – 2 Guarnizo

Guarnizo beat Ribamontán al Mar 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Baceñuela in Galizano, Ribamontán al Mar.