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Guarnizo vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Guarnizo
Guarnizo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
6/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio El Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Guarnizo52%
×Draw25%
Ribamontán al Mar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarnizo
1.61
Ribamontán al Mar
0.97

Guarnizo creates 66% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 28 away

creates per match

Guarnizo
1.23
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Guarnizo
0.98
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Guarnizo+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarnizo ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Guarnizo or draw
77%
Guarnizo or Ribamontán al Mar
75%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
48%

Winning margin

Guarnizo wins by 2+
28%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guarnizo 1+ goals
80%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
48%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
22%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
62%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
25%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guarnizo (draw refunded)
70%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarnizo at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 111 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Guarnizo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guarnizo scores more
52%
level
25%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
23%

Guarnizo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guarnizo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Guarnizo 1–0 Ribamontán al Mar

Guarnizo beat Ribamontán al Mar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Pilar in Guarnizo.