Riadi Salmi 0–0 Olympique Khouribga: Result & Stats

Riadi Salmi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olympique Khouribga

10/1/2022

Botola Pro · Round 4Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Riadi Salmi38%

×Draw29%

Olympique Khouribga33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Riadi SalmiExpected goals in this matchOlympique Khouribga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.08

Riadi Salmi

1.18

Olympique Khouribga

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 60 away

1.03

creates per match

0.82

1.34

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Riadi Salmi

1.03

Olympique Khouribga

0.82

allows per match

Riadi Salmi

1.34

Olympique Khouribga

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Olympique Khouribga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw

67%

Riadi Salmi or Olympique Khouribga

71%

Draw or Olympique Khouribga

62%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

16%

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

69%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

33%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

12%

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

66%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

29%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

53%

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Olympique Khouribga attack 0.82 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more

38%

level

29%

Olympique Khouribga scores more

33%

Riadi Salmi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff