Olympique Khouribga 0–0 Riadi Salmi: Result & Stats

Olympique Khouribga

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Riadi Salmi

2/26/2022

Botola Pro · Round 19Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Olympique Khouribga42%

×Draw27%

Riadi Salmi31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olympique KhouribgaExpected goals in this matchRiadi Salmi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.09

Olympique Khouribga

1.33

Riadi Salmi

1.09

Olympique Khouribga creates 22% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 61 away

1.23

creates per match

0.97

1.22

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga

1.23

Riadi Salmi

0.97

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga

1.22

Riadi Salmi

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

Riadi Salmi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw

69%

Olympique Khouribga or Riadi Salmi

73%

Draw or Riadi Salmi

58%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+

19%

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals

74%

Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals

38%

Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals

15%

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

66%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

30%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)

58%

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.23 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Riadi Salmi attack 0.97 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more

42%

level

27%

Riadi Salmi scores more

31%

Olympique Khouribga at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff