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Riadi Salmi vs Moghreb Tetouan — Botola Pro 2025

Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouan
12/21/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 15Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi38%
×Draw28%
Moghreb Tetouan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riadi Salmi
1.19
Moghreb Tetouan
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 91 away

creates per match

Riadi Salmi
1.03
Moghreb Tetouan
0.89

allows per match

Riadi Salmi
1.34
Moghreb Tetouan
1.35

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par
Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Moghreb Tetouan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw
66%
Riadi Salmi or Moghreb Tetouan
72%
Draw or Moghreb Tetouan
62%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
16%
Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
70%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
33%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
12%
Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
67%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
30%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
53%
Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

Moghreb Tetouan away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.89 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more
38%
level
28%
Moghreb Tetouan scores more
34%

Riadi Salmi at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riadi Salmi vs Moghreb Tetouan

Riadi Salmi beat Moghreb Tetouan 2-0 in Botola Pro on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.