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Moghreb Tetouan vs Riadi Salmi — Cup 2020

Moghreb Tetouan
Moghreb Tetouanadvanced
AET
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
4/7/2024CupCup · Round of 16Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Moghreb Tetouan28%
×Draw28%
Riadi Salmi44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moghreb Tetouan
1.00
Riadi Salmi
1.33

Riadi Salmi creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Moghreb Tetouan
0.67
Riadi Salmi
1.67

allows per match

Moghreb Tetouan
1.00
Riadi Salmi
1.33

finishing

Moghreb Tetouan+0.00on par
Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moghreb Tetouan ↓

Riadi Salmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Moghreb Tetouan or draw
56%
Moghreb Tetouan or Riadi Salmi
72%
Draw or Riadi Salmi
72%

Winning margin

Moghreb Tetouan wins by 2+
10%
Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Moghreb Tetouan 1+ goals
63%
Moghreb Tetouan 2+ goals
26%
Moghreb Tetouan 3+ goals
8%
Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
74%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
38%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Moghreb Tetouan (draw refunded)
39%
Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moghreb Tetouan at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moghreb Tetouan attack 0.67 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Riadi Salmi attack 1.67 + Moghreb Tetouan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Moghreb Tetouan scores more
28%
level
28%
Riadi Salmi scores more
44%

Riadi Salmi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Riadi Salmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Moghreb Tetouan 2–1 Riadi Salmi

Moghreb Tetouan beat Riadi Salmi 2-1 in Cup on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.