Riadi Salmi 0–2 Maghreb Fès: Result & Stats

Riadi Salmi

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Maghreb Fès

12/8/2024

Botola Pro · Round 13Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Riadi Salmi32%

×Draw29%

Maghreb Fès39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Riadi SalmiExpected goals in this matchMaghreb Fès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.17

Riadi Salmi

1.02

Maghreb Fès

1.17

Maghreb Fès creates 15% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 90 away

1.03

creates per match

0.99

1.34

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Riadi Salmi

1.03

Maghreb Fès

0.99

allows per match

Riadi Salmi

1.34

Maghreb Fès

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riadi Salmi ↓

Maghreb Fès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Riadi Salmi or draw

61%

Riadi Salmi or Maghreb Fès

71%

Draw or Maghreb Fès

68%

Winning margin

Riadi Salmi wins by 2+

12%

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Riadi Salmi 1+ goals

64%

Riadi Salmi 2+ goals

27%

Riadi Salmi 3+ goals

8%

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

69%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

33%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)

45%

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riadi Salmi at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riadi Salmi attack 1.03 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Riadi Salmi scores more

32%

level

29%

Maghreb Fès scores more

39%

Maghreb Fès at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff