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Maghreb Fès vs Riadi Salmi — Botola Pro 2025

Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Riadi Salmi
Riadi Salmi
5/4/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 28Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Maghreb Fès46%
×Draw28%
Riadi Salmi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maghreb Fès
1.30
Riadi Salmi
0.90

Maghreb Fès creates 44% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 61 away

creates per match

Maghreb Fès
1.16
Riadi Salmi
0.97

allows per match

Maghreb Fès
0.82
Riadi Salmi
1.44

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par
Riadi Salmi+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

Riadi Salmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw
74%
Maghreb Fès or Riadi Salmi
72%
Draw or Riadi Salmi
54%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
21%
Riadi Salmi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
73%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
37%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
14%
Riadi Salmi 1+ goals
59%
Riadi Salmi 2+ goals
23%
Riadi Salmi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
64%
Riadi Salmi (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.82 · 90 matches

Riadi Salmi away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.16 + Riadi Salmi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Riadi Salmi attack 0.97 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more
46%
level
28%
Riadi Salmi scores more
26%

Maghreb Fès at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maghreb Fès vs Riadi Salmi

Maghreb Fès beat Riadi Salmi 2-0 in Botola Pro on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Hassan-II in Fès.